Emissions growth

I am using Cntlmat and Grwinven to apply growth factors to my 2012 base year inventory to scale to 2018. I’m using the /PROJECTION/ packet and all of my scale factors are larger than 1. Thus I expect the new, scaled emissions to be greater than those obtained without using Cntlmat and Grwinven.

However, the scaled outputs actually have lower emissions than the unscaled emissions. I’m stumped as to why the emissions aren’t being increased. I know the scales won’t be temporally or spatially uniform (since the scale factors are dependent on SCC), but I would not expect to see decreased emissions like I am now.

Has anyone else experienced this or have any insight? I attached my GCNTL file and please let me know if any other information would be useful.

gcntl.2012_2018.txt (11.7 KB)

Thank you,

Hi Elyse,

I have two questions regarding to your GCNTL input file. First, are some of your SCCs 14-characters long? I see there are some 8-characters long and 14 characters long. Make sure you use the same SCCs from inventory in the GCNTL input file for a proper matching.
Second, do you have raw TOG inventory pollutant instead of VOC? If you are processing TOG as raw inventory through Smkinven, then you are good. If not, you need to use the same pollutant name from your raw inventory.

Hi BH,

Yes, the SCCs in my raw inventory files are 14-characters long for area sources and 8-characters long for point sources. I used the same gcntl files for both source types. The raw inventory files use TOG, so it should be okay that I’m using TOG in the gcntl file.

The *projrep reports (below for area sources) imply that the scaling factors are being interpreted correctly by Cntlmat. Can you please suggest some other intermediate/output files I can look at to further investigate the problem?

aprojrep.LA4km_CARB2012_mostemis_VCPonly_rpt.txt (3.5 MB)

Thank you,

Have you tried to generate summary reports using Smkreport? You can create various types of summary reports using the commands like “PROJECTION”

UNITS ALL tons/year

Thank you for the suggestion! I added that Create Report section to my REPCONFIG file, but it returned this error:

INTERNAL ERROR: Smkreport is not set up to support more than 1 variable in the projection matrix.

I added “SELECT DATA NROG” so that it would only look for one variable, but that did not fix the issue. Do you know what’s going on?

Sorry about the late response. Have you tried to get the report for TOG alone?
Also, once you successfully run Smkreport, please check your Smkreport log file to make sure that your control matrix (CMAT) is opened and applied as well as find the exact location of output files.

I’ve tried to get the report for TOG alone, but unfortunately it still fails.

I think I figured out the problem, I just have not been able to solve it. My GCNTL files are only trying to scale TOG, so the APMAT and PPMAT files should only have one variable: TOG. But when Cntlmat runs, it assigns a default value (-0.99990E+37) to the scaling factors of all of the pollutants that are associated with the SCCs in my GCNTL file, even if those pollutants aren’t in the GCNTL file. (I can see this info in the APROJREP and PPROJREP reports.) This leads to the APMAT and PPMAT files having two variables: TOG and PM.

I haven’t been able to figure out how to prevent Cntlmat from assigning the default value to PM. Do you know how to do this, or is there something else that stands out to you that might be the problem?

Outside of the Smkreport files, I can see in the Grwinven log that the ACMAT and PCMAT files are being opened. And, this problem isn’t preventing SMOKE from running all the way through because the output files are still created. So, I don’t know if this problem is only causing the Smkreport to fail, or if it has to do with the original issue of the emissions not scaling correctly. Either way, I suppose it would be good to get it working so that I can look at the Smkreport in more detail.

I just downloaded your GCNTL file and found out that it is in “tab” delimited format. Can you change it to CSV format instead? SMOKE can not handle “tab” well.