I am working for processing the potential impacts of emission reduction in the future years on air quality over the US by using the CMAQ model. To initialize my CMAQ model, I need to find the projected NEI emission inventory in future years like 2023 and 2038. Since my baseline simulation is for NEI 2014, I would like to find the projected NEI based on NEI2014. However, I have no clues where are they (I noticed that it was under development reported in a presentation by Alison.)
Could you please tell me where I can find them?
Ryan, projected emissions for 2023 and 2028 were developed through the 2016 platform effort. The base year is 2016, not 2014.
You may find information and data on this here:
More specifically, the 2016v1 platform is here:
You’ll see there is a pointer to the release page on the Intermountain West Data Warehouse.
Note that within the next month or so, there will be a formal TSD describing the platform, which currently is documented by specification sheets.
Note that the magnitude of the 2023 and 2028 emissions with a 2016 base year should be similar to those with a 2014 base year for some sectors, but can be different for sectors like ptnonipm and some others because in most cases we start with the base year inventory and then apply factors to get to the future year.
Temporal factors for sectors like ag and rwc will be different due to temperature differences between the years, and fires and biogenic emissions will also be different.
Let us know if you have questions.
Thanks for this quick reply. Another two questions in my mind are described below:
- May I ask whether do we have any future projected emission inventory based on NEI 2014 since my base scenario is 2014?
- If I just want to know the amount of emission change for each sectors and total NEI emission (like the total emission amount for NEI 2014 is XXXXX t), where can I find the corresponding values such as the total emissions amount for NEI 2016, projected 2023 NEI, 2028 NEI?
Highly appreciate your help and clarification！
No, there are not projected emissions based directly on 2014.
If you want to see the emissions values for the various years from the available inventories, check out the summary reports here:
In particular, the ones that start with 2011v63_2014v71_2016v1_… would be what you want to look at.
Keep in mind that the future year inventories are not called the “NEI” – they are parts of a modeling platform.
2016 is also a modeling platform, although the point source part might be called the NEI.